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After posting those first thoughts about "The Incident" immediately following the episode last week, I tried to sleep for a few hours (still haunted by the image of a certain blond on the precipice of her demise) and then watched the finale again. Since then, I've been trying to avoid other Lost sites, podcasts and finale analysis until I had the time to share my own second round of theories.
[note the chains looming large near Juliet's feet. by the way, I'll never post photos of her down the Swan hole ...I can't even watch that scene, let alone have reminders of it here.]
IF Juliet is dead, I look forward to Ben's reaction to this news.
I really like LostElena's assertion that because Ellie was pregnant with Faraday when The Incident occurred, he may still actually be alive. Of course that depends on many factors, one of which is WHERE and WHEN she winds up after the bomb is detonated. If that causes her to remain on the island, Faraday may never be born due to the island childbirth problem. Unless the detonation forever erases that particular issue...
I'm still not sure which side in the good v. evil category that Jacob falls under, but the translation of the Latin phrase that Alpert provides in response to 'what lies in the shadow of the statue?' is "he who will protect/save us all." Of course Jacob resides IN the statue, and not in its shadow. But one can argue that he was LYING (verbally) in its shadow, while talking to Mystery Man on the beach. That the word "lies" is a homonym widens the pool of candidates: Jacob, MM, Alpert, Ben, etc.
MILES
Frankly, I am thrilled that Miles has become an integral part of the cast and overall lore, that he was able to share a few moments with his father, and that he is one half of the best inadvertent comedy duos to ever grace a primetime drama.
He clearly does not live in the foot of the statue with Jacob, so I assume he resides in The Temple...and not alone.
It makes sense that MM became Not-Locke when Real Locke's body arrived via Ajira 316. BUT, I keep thinking back to a key scene in the pilot episode of Season 1 which is making me question whether or not MM became Locke before flight 815. Locke made two statements to Walt that are now open to interpretation, given the nature of the game between dark MM and light Jacob:LOCKE: "Backgammon is the oldest game in the world. Archaeologists found sets when they excavated the ruins of ancient Mesopotamia. Five thousand years old. That's older than Jesus Christ."
LOCKE: "Two players, two sides. One is light, one is dark. Walt, do you want to know a secret?"
Perhaps that secret is that MM/Not-Locke revealed his identity and plan to the special boy, which is why Ben later kidnapped Walt and attempted to get that information out of him in Room 23 (on behalf of Jacob). 
SAYID
When we saw Smokey go after Keamy's mercenaries in New Otherton, INSIDE the sonic fences, it was proof that Juliet held some sort of power over it. In Season 3, Smokey stopped short at the sonic fence while confronting Juliet, but not because of the security system...because of what he'd seen when he scanned her previously. Regardless of whether or not Smokey IS Mystery Man/Not-Locke or still an unknown being, my feeling is that it knew exactly why Juliet was brought to the island and was not about to interfere with her eventual detonation of Jughead.
In the pilot episode, Jack asks for a pen to perform a tracheotomy on Rose. Something tells me it's the pen that Jacob gave Sawyer in The Incident.
In Solitary (episode 1.09), Sayid looks at a photo of Nadia. In The Incident, Nadia is killed as Sayid speaks with Jacob.Some say the world will end in fire; some say in ice.Let's review...at the end of S2, we see two men stationed in a very snowy and remote station in an unknown locale. At the end of S5, Jacob ended in fire. At the end of S4, Locke was in ice pushing the wheel beneath the Orchid. Locke has seemingly perished twice, and I'm sure that Jacob will survive this particular fire (and not for the first time). Both have known enough of hate. And remember, Everything That Rises Must Converge...
From what I've tasted of desire, I hold with those who favor fire.
But if it had to perish twice, I think I know enough of hate,
To know that for destruction, ice is also great and would suffice.
---Please click here to read my theory, which is posted on DocArzt's site.
Thanks!
Up until Ajira 316 landed on Hydra island with John Locke in a coffin, MM's spirit was being held captive in Jacob's cabin. The line of ash surrounding the cabin is from the fire continuously burning in Jacob's lair in the foot of the statue; it was mixed with salt from the sea to form the line that provided protection from evil spirits (a common practice of ghost hunters).
MM observed carefully over the years as Jacob sent Alpert to be present at Locke's birth and then attempt to recruit him as a child while at a foster home. Though Alpert questioned Locke's abilities and Jacob's choice for their future island leader, MM never gave up hope in the man he would one day become. When Jacob literally brought Locke to life immediately following his fall out of the window, that sealed the deal for MM. He knew that Locke would be arriving on the island a broken man and spirit, but one who would be rejuvenated/healed by the island, making him the perfect....candidate.
Jacob finally managed to get Locke to the island via Oceanic flight 815. Through Alpert, Jacob assigned Ben the task of manipulating and guiding Locke toward eventual island leadership. Consider one of the first conversations between the two (Two for the Road, episode 2.20):LOCKE: "I was trapped under that hatch door, helpless. You could have crushed my skull, but you didn't do a thing. Why didn't you?"
BEN: "Because you're one of the good ones, John."
LOCKE: "What? Good what?"
BEN: "None of this matters. I'm dead anyway. The doctor is going to make a trade and we both know he'll come back empty handed and then I've lost my value. So either Jack comes back here and and kills me or my people find out where I'm being held and they do it."
LOCKE: "Why would your own people want to kill you?"
BEN: "Because the man in charge, he's a great man, John. A brilliant man. But he's not a forgiving man. He'll kill me because I failed, John. I failed my mission."
LOCKE: "What mission?"
BEN: "When that woman caught me in her trap, I was on my way here, John. I was coming for you."
For years, Ben had inadvertently assisted MM's long journey toward the acquisition of a new body for his soul.
Second, Ben killed Locke off-island. MM knew that Jacob's rules dictated that flight 316 passengers recreate the circumstances of flight 815 in order to return to the island; that the recently deceased Locke would be placed in a coffin on the plane, as a proxy for the deceased Christian Shephard.
As soon as flight 316 and Locke's body arrived on the island, MM was able to finally leave the cabin; thus, the break in the line of ash. He made his way to the plane over on Hydra Island, and to Locke's coffin (don't ask me how; logistics are a bit blurry at this point but keep in mind that this theory is based upon a spirit rather than an actual person, and that we accept at face value that an island can move after the turn of a frozen wheel).
That being said, this portion of the theory may require an Eloise Hawking-inspired "leap of faith," so bear with me...
While preparing to descend down to turn the Frozen Donkey Wheel, Ben put in the Orchid Orientation film for Locke to watch:ILANA: "The pilot and some woman took one (referring to the outrigger)."
MM/NOT-LOCKE: "The pilot that brought YOU here?"
ILANA: "Yes, that's right."
MM/NOT-LOCKE: "Do you have a passenger list?"
ILANA: "Nobody remembers you being on the plane."
MM/NOT-LOCKE: "Well, I don't remember being on it either."
ILANA: "What do you remember?"
MM/NOT-LOCKE: "I remember a lot."
MM inherited Locke's memories (or at least those that he overheard and witnessed over the years as both Alpert and Ben interacted with him), as well as his body for a shell.
Immediately following the Season 5 finale last night ("The Incident"), my brother-in-law John sent me this very cool theory, which is applicable to the entire series.JACOB/FREE WILL: I take it you're here because of the ship.At the end of the episode, we discover that Locke is not Locke. Evil Twin Locke has now taken on the role of Fate, and aims to kill Jacob/Free Will. Fate tells Free Will that "you have no idea what I have done to get here," and proceeds to have Ben kill Free Will. As Free Will is dying, he says "they're coming." Fate looks shocked, and kicks Free Will into the fire. At that moment, Juliet detonates the bomb and we're left with the tagline about destiny in 2010.
MYSTERY MAN/FATE: I am. How did they find the island?
FREE WILL: You'll have to ask them when they get here.
FATE: I don't have to ask. You brought them here. Still trying to prove me wrong, aren't you?
FREE WILL: You are wrong.
FATE: Am I? They come, they fight, they destroy, they corrupt. It always ends the same.
FREE WILL: It only ends once. Anything that happens before that is just progress.
FATE: Do you have any idea how badly I want to kill you?
FREE WILL: Yes.
FATE: One of these days, sooner or later, I'm going to find a loophole my friend.
FREE WILL: When you do, I'll be right here.
Let's further explore Fate's statement, "you have no idea what I have done to get here." In order to kill Free Will, Fate had to bring Locke to the island. To do so, Fate had to follow/influence the fates of ALL of the people necessary to get Locke to the island, in order to kill Free Will. Fate went so far as to affect actual time on the island...
The twist is that Fate doesn't quite win. In this episode, we see Free Will going into the world and influencing people; Kate, Sun, Jin, Sawyer, Hurley, and Sayid. In each case, he tells them to do something that they either don't follow (demonstrating that they still have free will), or gives them a choice as to whether or not they want to do what he asks (Hurley, Ilana and, to some extent, Sayid). I thought it was odd that we didn't see these scenes throughout the past 5 years of the series, as it seemed like a tacked-on storyline. However, in light of Free Will's last line, "they're coming," it seems that Free Will has put some things in motion himself, by giving people choices as to whether or not they want to do things.
Juliet, Kate, Sawyer and Jack all wrestle with the fact that if they "go back," they will never meet, and decide that they will make the choice to let Fate decide. However all of them change their mind at some point in the episode.
Is the island an "Olympus" or other mythical place that mortals have been drawn to in order to allow Fate to carry out his grudge towards Free Will?
After thinking about the tag-line for next year, perhaps Destiny IS a better word than Fate!
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